What Is Bitcoin Halving? From Basics to Latest Trends
Bitcoin halving is a significant event that can potentially impact its price.
The 4th halving was completed in April 2024, and the next one is expected around 2028.
This article explains how halving works, price trends from all four past halvings, and the outlook for the 5th halving in 2028 based on the latest information.
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Bitcoin halving is an event where mining rewards are cut in half. It occurs approximately every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks).
How Halving Works
Bitcoin is newly issued through mining. When miners verify transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain, they receive Bitcoin as a reward.
This reward is designed to be halved approximately every 4 years.
| Period | Block Reward |
|---|---|
| 2009 - 2012 | 50 BTC |
| 2012 - 2016 | 25 BTC |
| 2016 - 2020 | 12.5 BTC |
| 2020 - 2024 | 6.25 BTC |
| 2024 - 2028 | 3.125 BTC |
| 2028- | 1.5625 BTC (expected) |
Why Does Halving Exist?
Halving is a mechanism that increases Bitcoin’s scarcity.
- Maximum supply is fixed at 21 million BTC
- Gradually reducing new issuance controls inflation
- After 33 halvings, new issuance will end around 2140
Like gold, Bitcoin is considered to have store-of-value characteristics due to its limited supply.
The 4th Halving (Completed in 2024)
In April 2024, Bitcoin experienced its 4th halving.
4th Halving Key Information
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Date | April 19, 2024 (UTC) |
| Block Number | 840,000 |
| Reward Change | 6.25 BTC → 3.125 BTC |
| Price at Halving | Approx. $64,000 |
4th Halving Feature: First-Ever All-Time High Before Halving
The 4th halving had a characteristic different from the previous three.
For the first time in history, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the halving.
In March 2024, Bitcoin recorded an all-time high of approximately $73,000. This was about one month before the halving.
Key points in the chart:
- January 2024: US approves spot Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional capital inflow begins
- March 2024: New all-time high (approx. $71,000). About 1 month before halving
- April 2024: 4th halving. Reward reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC
- November 2024: Surges past $96,000 after presidential election
Why Did It Surge Before the Halving?
The main factor was Bitcoin ETF approval.
In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. This allowed massive capital from traditional financial markets to flow into Bitcoin.
The ETF effect combined with halving expectations led to a significant pre-halving rally.
Post-4th Halving Developments
Immediately after the halving, there was no “instant surge” as with past events.
However, when Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, prices surged on expectations of crypto-friendly policies. Combined with institutional investor participation through ETFs, market maturity has significantly improved.
When Is the Next Halving? (5th Halving - 2028 Prediction)
Expected Timing of the 5th Halving
| Item | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Expected Date | Around 2028 (exact month undetermined) |
| Block Number | 1,050,000 |
| Reward Change | 3.125 BTC → 1.5625 BTC |
Due to variations in block generation time, the exact date won’t be confirmed until it gets closer.
Expert Price Predictions
Multiple experts have released price predictions for the 2028 halving.
| Expert/Institution | Price Prediction | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| Bitwise (Matt Hougan, CIO) | Over $250,000 | By 2028 halving |
| CryptoCon | $180,000 | 2025 |
| Fidelity (Jurrien Timmer) | $1,000,000 - $10,000,000 | 2030 |
These are only predictions and may vary significantly depending on market conditions.
Past Halvings: Complete History and Price Trends
Let’s review the price movements from all four past halvings.
1st Halving: November 28, 2012
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Reward Change | 50 BTC → 25 BTC |
| Price at Halving | Approx. $12 |
| Peak 1 Year Later | Approx. $1,150 (December 2013) |
| Increase | About 95x |
Key points in the chart:
- November 2012: 1st halving. Reward reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC
- April 2013: First time exceeding $100
- November-December 2013: Surged to $948 (about 1 year after halving)
- 2014: Decline due to Mt. Gox hack, entering bear market
The first halving drew attention to Bitcoin’s scarcity.
2nd Halving: July 9, 2016
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Reward Change | 25 BTC → 12.5 BTC |
| Price at Halving | Approx. $650 |
| Peak 1.5 Years Later | Approx. $19,700 (December 2017) |
| Increase | About 30x |
Key points in the chart:
- July 2016: 2nd halving. Reward reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC
- January 2017: Breaks through $1,000
- Late 2017: Surge driven by ICO boom and institutional investor entry
- December 2017: All-time high of approx. $19,700 (about 1.5 years after halving)
- 2018: Bubble burst and decline
There was no immediate surge right after the halving, but prices gradually climbed afterward.
3rd Halving: May 11, 2020
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Reward Change | 12.5 BTC → 6.25 BTC |
| Price at Halving | Approx. $8,700 |
| Peak 1.5 Years Later | Approx. $68,000 (November 2021) |
| Increase | About 7.8x |
Key points in the chart:
- March 2020: COVID crash drops price to $6,400
- May 2020: 3rd halving. Reward reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC
- Late 2020: Breaks $19,000 with institutional investor entry
- April 2021: Reaches $64,000 (about 1 year after halving)
- November 2021: All-time high of $68,000 (about 1.5 years after halving)
- 2022: Decline due to monetary tightening
After the halving, prices remained flat, with the rally beginning about 2.5 months later in July. It then rose significantly through 2021.
4th Halving: April 20, 2024
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Reward Change | 6.25 BTC → 3.125 BTC |
| Price at Halving | Approx. $64,000 |
| Pre-Halving Peak | Approx. $73,000 (March 2024) |
| Feature | First - ever pre - halving all - time high |
Key points in the chart:
- January 2024: US approves spot Bitcoin ETFs
- March 2024: New all-time high (approx. $71,000). About 1 month before halving
- April 2024: 4th halving. Reward reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC
- November 2024: Surges past $96,000 after presidential election
The Bitcoin ETF approval led to a pattern different from past halvings.
Comparison of All 4 Halvings
| # | Year | Price at Halving | Subsequent Peak | Characteristic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2012 | Approx. $12 | Approx. $1,150 | First halving, growing awareness |
| 2 | 2016 | Approx. $650 | Approx. $19,700 | Gradual rise |
| 3 | 2020 | Approx. $8,700 | Approx. $68,000 | COVID - era surge |
| 4 | 2024 | Approx. $64,000 | Approx. $73,000 (pre - halving) | ETF - driven pre - halving rally |
How Halving Affects Price
Let’s organize how halving affects Bitcoin’s price.
Theory Behind Price Increases
The reason halving is believed to drive prices up is based on the principle of supply and demand.
- New supply halves → Scarcity increases
- If demand stays the same → Price rises
However, this only applies if the market hasn’t already “priced in” the halving.
Historical Patterns
Patterns observed from the four past halvings:
- No instant surge occurred - Prices didn’t spike on the halving day itself
- Medium to long-term uptrends followed - Historically, prices tended to rise within 12 months after halving
- Market conditions matter - Factors beyond halving (ETFs, regulations, macroeconomics) also significantly impact prices
Important Considerations
Halving does not guarantee price increases.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- As the market matures, halving effects may gradually diminish
- Other factors (regulatory crackdowns, hacking incidents, etc.) can cause declines
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q. When does Bitcoin halving occur?
It occurs approximately every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks). The 4th halving was completed in April 2024, and the next is expected around 2028.
Q. Does the price always go up after halving?
All four past halvings were followed by medium to long-term price increases, but there’s no guarantee. Market factors beyond halving also significantly influence prices.
Q. Should I wait until the next halving?
Investment decisions depend on individual risk tolerance. Prices tend to be volatile around halvings, so make decisions after fully understanding the risks.
Q. How many halvings will there be in total?
33 in total. The last halving will occur around 2140, after which new issuance ends. This is also when the maximum supply of 21 million BTC will be reached.
Q. Will miners become unprofitable after halving?
Since rewards are halved, inefficient miners may exit. However, efficient miners can maintain profitability through price increases and transaction fee revenue.
Summary
Here are the key points about Bitcoin halving:
- What is halving: An event where mining rewards are halved approximately every 4 years
- April 2024: 4th halving completed, reward now 3.125 BTC
- 2024’s distinction: Bitcoin ETF approval led to first-ever pre-halving all-time high
- Next in 2028: 5th halving expected, reward will become 1.5625 BTC
- Historical pattern: No instant surges, but medium to long-term uptrends followed
- Key consideration: Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Comprehensive market analysis is essential
You can check Bitcoin’s historical price movements for free on Google Finance.
Halving is an important event, but investment decisions should be made carefully.
*This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries the risk of losing principal. Make investment decisions at your own responsibility.